2025 Wheat ARC-CO vs. PLC: For Wheat, It’s PLC — Everywhere
We run estimates for multiple states and in all cases, PLC tops ARC-CO
We’ve run corn and beans across the Corn Belt, and the wheat requests brought a much wider map — so here’s wheat for 15 states: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Washington, every county, on the attached spreadsheets. Same engine as always: official FSA benchmark yields, harvested RMA 2025 yields, a 90% guarantee and 12% cap, paid on 85% of base. The wheat-specific numbers are a $6.98 benchmark price, a $5.05 projected MYA, and — this is the key — a PLC rate of $1.30 a bushel ($6.35 effective reference minus the $5.05 MYA).
Here’s the headline, and it’s the same in all 15 states: on 2025 wheat, PLC beats ARC-CO in every single county. Not most counties — every one, across more than 1,200 counties I ran.
