Bearish WASDE Yields Reduce 2025 ARC/PLC Estimates
Even though the January WASDE report was bearish, USDA raised the 2025/26 corn MYA price by 10 cents
First, my wife and I finally got home from Hawaii at 6 am this morning into Denver. I dropped my wife off with an Uber driver to take her home and then caught a flight to Des Moines to attend the Land Investment Expo. I have been to several of these and if you have never gone, I would heartily recommend attending.
As I was on the plane to Des Moines, USDA released the January WASDE report and to say it was bearish is an understatement for corn. Everyone thought the final yield number would come down by about 2 bushels; instead, it went up by .5 bushels, and they increased the final harvested acres by 1.3 million acres.
You would think they would adjust the 2025/26 corn MYA price down to reflect the larger crop. Instead, they increased it from $4.00 to $4.10.
In our previous post on the estimated 2025 ARC/PLC to be paid this October, we pegged the national payment at almost $12.5 billion, but that assumed a final yield of 103% of the benchmark yield. Based on this report, we are boosting the final yield to 104%.
