The Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 baseline projects about $14 billion of PLC and ARC payments for the 2026 crop year — $11.2 billion of PLC and $2.8 billion of ARC-CO, paid out in October 2027 (fiscal year 2028).
Run the August WASDE prices through the actual formulas and that number falls apart. My estimate is closer to $2.5 to $3 billion, and it could be less.
Here is why.
Corn and soybeans go to zero on PLC
The effective reference price is what matters, not the statutory number. For the 2026 crop year those are:
Corn — $4.42. August WASDE puts the 2026/27 season-average price at $4.50. No PLC payment.
Soybeans — $10.71. WASDE says $11.40. No PLC payment.
In my 2025 model, corn and soybeans generated roughly $3.8 billion of PLC between them. For 2026 they generate nothing.
