Elevated 2026 ARC Benchmark Prices May Not Help Much for ARC Payments
2026 PLC payments may be low for corn, wheat and soybeans and ARC will only help if yields are low
In yesterday’s post we provided our first projections for PLC payments for the major crops. The outlook for corn, soybeans and wheat is fairly bleak for PLC payments based on current USDA 2026 MYA price projections.
But what about ARC payments. These payments are based on the ARC benchmark price times ARC benchmark yields for the county. These amounts are already known; therefore, we can calculate how much yield is needed above or below the benchmark yield to arrive at whether ARC would pay or not.
OBBBA changed the payment trigger from 86% of benchmark revenue to 90%. Therefore, if the 90% of the benchmark price is higher than the estimated MYA price, then a county yield can actually be higher than benchmark yield and still trigger an ARC payment.
Here is our table of the four major crops based on the current MYA projections:
