How Do Our 2025 ARC/PLC Estimates Compare to University of Illinois Estimates
FarmDoc Daily just released their estimates of 2025 ARC and PLC Payments
In this post we will review how our estimates might be different from theirs. We were able to update our estimates based on the November MYA price projections for all of the crops. U of I only shows the estimates for the seven “major” crops.
Our estimates are based on 103% of benchmark yields which may still be a little low for corn and soybeans. We are not sure what yields U of I is using in their estimates but yields only matter for ARC. If the estimated PLC payment is greater than ARC, then whether final yields are 100%, 105% or even 110% may not matter since the PLC payment is so much higher than ARC. This is reality for all of the other major crops other than corn and soybeans.
Here is a table of the estimated total payments per U of I versus our estimate at both the 103% and 100% of benchmark yields:
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