How Much Wheat Yield Reduction to Maximize ARC-CO Payment
We work up the numbers for the 2026 crop
We know that Hard Red Wheat growers this year will face large yield reductions. USDA is projecting that the final MYA wheat price will be $6.50 which is 15 cents higher than the effective reference price of $6.35, therefore, there will be no PLC payment if that price holds or does not drop below $6.35.
However, these growers can elect ARC-CO and that will make a payment even with the higher MYA price assuming that their yield falls below a certain threshold. We elected to work up some charts showing what the minimum reduction in yield needed to maximize the payment under ARC-CO.
Here is chart number 1:
