Social Security Projects Wage Base out to 2033

In the latest Trustees Report, SSA projects what the wage base may be for the next 9 years.

Photo by Michael Bourgault on Unsplash

The Social Security Administration releases an annual report with a lot of information on social security benefits including a projection of when it may start receiving less funds that what it pays out in benefits.

One of the tables in the report (V.C1) lists the historical wage bases from 1975-2024 plus estimates what the wage base might be for the next 9 years based on an intermediate, low and high-cost projections.

The wage base is increased each year based on how much the average wage received in the US increased from the year before. It is very rare for this amount to ever decrease. The only year with a decrease since 1975 was 2009 when it fell by 1.5%. Even in 2020 during the pandemic when everyone thought the average wage would drop dramatically, there was an actual 2.82% increase.

SSA currently estimates that the 2025 wage base will be somewhere between $174,900 and $175,500 up from the current 2024 base of $168,600. They were too low by about $900 when they projected the wage base for 2024 last year, so these numbers can vary in final form.

2033 wage base expectations range from $224,100 on the low end to $267,000 on the high-end assuming Congress does not make changes to the calculations.

We know that Congress will need to make changes before 2033 but likely they will wait to the last minute since this is a very politically charged issue.