December MYA Numbers Raise Estimated National ARC/PLC Payments by about $550 Million

Based on the latest December report, we now estimate 2025 ARC/PLC payments at about $12.5 billion.

Photo by Roger Starnes Sr on Unsplash

We had reported total 2025 National ARC/PLC payments would be about $11.9 billion based on the November Mid-Year Average (MYA) prices.

USDA has provided the updated December MYA prices, and most prices did not change. However, rice and cotton did see declines in their prices and the new estimated total 2025 ARC/PLC payments to start next October (unless accelerated by Congress) will now increase about $550 million to about $12.46 billion.

However, until final yields for all counties are tallied, it is impossible to be fully accurate in the numbers. We are basing our ARC payments using 103% of the benchmark yields for each county. If this is on the low side, then ARC payments will be lower. If the final yield is less than 103%, then the payment will be higher.

For most crops, PLC will pay more than ARC, however, for corn it appears that ARC may pay more than PLC. However, if we simply increase yields to 104% of benchmark yields, we then wipe out the increase on a national basis.

Here is the chart showing the final estimates per crop: